Carvalho
0% chanceBrentford · MID · £5.0m
Knock - Expected back 23 Nov
1461.0
Elo
Up 8.3 since May
1501 Z-Score
Latest · GW5
1461.0, up 8.3 after a goal against Chelsea (H)
Overall rank
#145
of 454 on Z-Score
Good top 20% to 40% of the rated
MID rank
#61
of 218 on Z-Score
Total Points
6
PPG
6.00
Z-Score: MID points per game are compared against a 2.98 average , spread 1.19. Measured against this season's regulars (137 of them), pulled toward the same measurement over 2025-26 (48 players).
01
Upcoming fixtures
BHA (A) GW10
EVE (H) GW11
MUN (A) GW12
ARS (H) GW13
MCI (H) GW14
02
2026/27 gameweek by gameweek
Form 0.0
vs season average -6.0
Appearances 1
- GW9 No appearance recorded
- GW8 No appearance recorded
- GW7 No appearance recorded
- GW6 No appearance recorded
- GW5 Chelsea, home 6 pts 1461.0 Elo +8.3 rating change A goal 23 BPS
- GW4 No appearance recorded
- GW3 No appearance recorded
- GW2 No appearance recorded
- GW1 No appearance recorded
03
Season stats
Goals 1
Assists 0
Bonus 0
Minutes 3
04
Expected stats Expected goals and assists based on the quality of chances. Compares what a player 'should' score vs what they actually score.
xG
Expected Goals. Season total of goals expected based on shot quality. Compare to actual goals to see if clinical or unlucky. 0.55
xA
Expected Assists. Season total of assists expected based on key pass quality. Compare to actual assists. 0.00
xG/90
Expected Goals per 90 mins. Normalizes for minutes played. 0.5+ is very good for forwards, 0.3+ good for midfielders. 0.00
xA/90
Expected Assists per 90 mins. Normalizes for minutes played. 0.3+ is very good. Shows creative output rate. 0.00
Goals vs xG
Actual goals minus expected. Positive = clinical finisher beating xG. Negative = underperforming, may be due for positive regression. 1 from 0.6 xG +0.4
05
Ownership
0.0% of FPL squads have picked Carvalho
Percentage of FPL squads that have picked Carvalho right now.
06
Elo Glicko-style skill rating. It updates match by match and carries across seasons rather than resetting, so it is not a count of points scored.
Current
1500 is the baseline a player with no history starts from. Higher is a stronger record against the players they have faced. 1461.0
Started 2026/27 at
Where this rating stood when 2025-26 closed in May. It is frozen there for the season, so the movement below is measured against it. 1452.7
Since May Movement is measured against where the Elo stood when 2025-26 closed in May, which is the figure carried into 2026/27. +8.3
Peak, all time
The highest this rating has ever reached, counting every season the player has been rated in. A large gap between the peak and the current number means they are below their best. 1500.0
Peak, 2026/27 The highest this rating has reached through 2026/27 football alone. It fills in once a gameweek of this season has been rated, so it is empty for the whole of pre-season. 1461.0
Confidence
Rating Deviation. Lower = more confident rating. Higher = less data, rating may change quickly. 283 RD
Games, career
Appearances behind this rating, counted across every season the player has been rated in rather than this one alone. 7
Games, 2026/27 How many of those appearances are 2026/27 ones. The rating row cannot always separate the seasons, and where it cannot this says so rather than showing a zero. 1
Opened 2026/27 on
The appearance count frozen when 2026/27 opened. Take it off the career figure above and what is left is this season's, so the split can be checked rather than taken on trust. 6
Evidence
The bars beside an Elo say how much football is behind it. One bar is a rating built on a handful of matches, which can move a long way once games are played, and three bars is close to a full season of evidence behind the number. 0.03 games
Trend
Which way this rating is moving, measured across 2026/27 gameweeks alone. It needs two of them behind it, so before that it reads as not recorded rather than as steady. Not recorded
It is built on 0.03 games, so most of this rating is still the starting assumption every player begins from, with about 0 per cent of it measured. Expect it to move a long way once matches are played.
07
FAPR Fixture-Adjusted Performance Rating. Adjusts PPG based on opponent difficulty faced.
FAPR 0.00
Raw PPG 6.00
Adjustment
Positive = performed better vs tough opponents. Negative = stats boosted by easy fixtures. -0.25
Stats boosted by easy fixtures - may struggle vs top teams.
08
PvE Performance vs Expected. Compares actual output to expected goals/assists. Shows if player is over or underperforming.
Ratio
Above 1.0 = scoring more than expected. Below 1.0 = scoring less than expected. 1.82x
Difference +0.5 goals
Elite finisher - significantly beating expected points.
09
Edge factor
Elite Excels against tough opponents AND beats expected points
10
Elo history
GW5
1461